​Okay, that's a bit of an exaggeration, but there’s a quirky mathematical result related to these deals which means the target loss cost can often end up clustering in a certain range. Let’s set up a dummy deal and I’ll show you what I mean.

Source:  Jim Linwood, Petticoat Lane Market, https://www.flickr.com/photos/brighton/4765025392
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I found this photo online, and I think it's a cool combo - it's got the modern City of London (the Gherkhin), a 60s brutalist-style estate (which when I looked it up online has been described as "a poor man's Barbican Estate"), and a street market which dates back to Tudor times (Petticoat lane). 

As a rule of thumb, news outlets like the Guardian [1] or BBC News [2] don't typically report on the decisions of the Delaware Court of Chancery, a fairly niche 'court of equity' which decides matters of corporate law in the state of Delaware. That is of course, unless those decisions involve Elon Musk. Recently, the Delaware court handed down a judgement which voided a /$56bn pay-out which was due to Musk for his role as Tesla’s CEO. The reasoning behind striking it down is quite legal and technical, and not really my area of expertise but Matt Levine has a good write up for those interested. [3]

What I am interested in is thinking about how we would assess the fairness of the pay-out. Now fairness is a slippery concept, but I'm going to present one angle, which I've haven't seen discussed elsewhere yet, which I think is one possible way of framing the situation.

I received a chain ladder analysis a few days ago that looked roughly like the triangle below, but there's actually a bit of a problem with how the method is dealing with this particular triangle, have a look at see if you can spot the issue.