German Flooding - tail position
As I’m sure you are aware July 2021 saw some of the worst flooding in Germany in living memory. Die Welt currently has the death toll for Germany at 166 .
Obviously this is a very sad time for Germany, but one aspect of the reporting that caught my attention was how much emphasis was placed on climate change when reporting on the floods. For example, the BBC , the Guardian , and even the Telegraph  all bring up the role that climate change played in the contributing to the severity of the flooding.
The question that came to my mind, is can we really infer the presence of climate change just from this one event? The flooding has been described as a ‘1-in-100 year event’ , but does this bear out when we analyse the data, and how strong evidence is this of the presence of climate change?
Image - https://unsplash.com/@kurokami04
I work as an actuary and underwriter at a global reinsurer in London.