This post is a follow up to a previous post, which I would recommend reading first if you haven't already:
In our previous modelling, in order to assess how extreme the 2021 German floods were, we compared the consensus estimate at the time for the floods (\$6bn insured loss) against a distribution parameterised using historic flood losses in Germany from 1994-2020. Since I posted that modelling however, as often happens in these cases, the consensus estimate has changed. The insurance press is now reporting a value of around \$8.3 bn . So what does that do for our modelling and our conclusions from last time?
I work as a pricing actuary at a reinsurer in London.