​Every year we have an office sweepstake for the Cheltenham horse racing festival. Like most sweepstakes, this one attempts to remove the skill, allowing everyone to take part without necessarily needing to know much about horse racing.

In case you’re not familiar with a Sweepstake, here’s a simple example of how one based on the World Cup might work:

• Entry costs £5
• Each player randomly selects a team
• The player who picked the team that goes on to win, gets all the money

This allows anyone to enter and have an equal chance of winning (the chance is equal prior to drawing, but not equal once the draw has been made), otherwise everyone would just want Spain or Germany, or whichever team is currently considered the favourite.
 
Note that in order for this to work properly, you need to ensure that the team draw is not carried out until everyone who wants to play has put their money in – otherwise you introduce some optionality and people can then decide whether to enter based on the teams that are still left. i.e. if you know that Germany and Spain have already been picked then there is less value in entering the competition.
 
The rules for our Cheltenham sweepstake were as follows:
 
The Rules
 
The festival comprises 7 races a day for 4 days, for a total of 28 races.
 
The sweepstake costs £20 to enter, and the winnings are calculated as follows:
 
3rd place in competition = 10% of pot
2nd place in competition = 20% of pot
1st place in competition = 70% of pot
 
Each participant picks one horse per race each morning. Points are then calculated using the following scoring system:

• 1st place – 5 x odds
• 2nd place – 3 x odds
• 3rd place – 1 x odds

 
A running total is kept throughout the competition, and the winner is determined after the final race.
 
The odds the scoring are based on are set using the odds printed in the Metro Newspaper on the morning of the races.
 
(as an example, for a horse which has odds of 11/2 in the Metro - if the horse then places 1st, if we selected this horse, we would win (1+11/2)*5 = 32.5 points)
 
Initial thoughts
 
Any set of betting odds can be converted to an implied probability of winning, these would be the odds which over the long run would cause you to breakeven if the race were repeated multiple times with each horse winning a proportion equal to its probability of winning.

Because the scoring in our sweepstake is based on the betting odds, using implied probabilities derived from the odds to help select our horses ends up cancelling itself out (which was the intention when designing the rules). The implied probability can be calculated as one over the odds As an aside, the bookie is indifferent to whether this is the correct probability of winning, they structures the odds purely on the ratio of how their customers are betting. They then structure the odds so that they make money on each race, regardless of which horse wins, for an explanation of this, see my post on creating a Dutchbook:
​
​www.lewiswalsh.net/blog/archives/12-2017
 
Here is an example showing how we would calculate the implied probabilities using some made up odds:
 

​

We can then use the implied probabilities we just calculated to see what would happen if each horse finished in the first three positions. Once we have done this, we can then calculate the Expected Value of betting on each horse:

We see that the payout varies for each horse, but the EV is the same. This is by design, the intention is that it should not matter which horse you bet on, the sweepstake rules equalise everyone.

So what can we - an actuary who knows nothing much about horse racing - do? I don’t have any special knowledge that would allow me to select a horse which would beat the odds listed in the Metro, we appear to be at an impasse.

I could attempt to build a model of which horse will win, and then select my horse based on that, but unless it proves to be more accurate than the Metro odds, I might as well just pick at random. Furthermore, if I could build such a model, then I could just start betting actual money. This probably shows you what a difficult problem this is! There's no such thing as free money. It would be a cool project to try, and it’s something I’ve been meaning to attempt for a while, but that’s best saved for another day.

Attempt 1 - Metro vs pre-race odds

My first thought was that we can exploit the difference in odds between those published in the Metro in the morning, and the latest odds published closer to the start of the race. It seems reasonable to assume that the odds just before the race should be more accurate than the metro odds. There will have been time for additional information to be included in the more up to date odds, e.g. the weather is worse than expected therefore horse x is expected to be slower than usual. Since the payout will be based on the Metro, we will then be able to maximise our EV by exploiting this differential. 

Our table will end up looking something like this:
​

 
We see that we have very small variations in the EVs for some of the horses. It looks like according to this analysis Horse 3 would be the best selection as it has the highest EVs for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Based on this strategy, we would then go through each race and select the horse with the highest EV.

Is this what I did? No, for a couple of reasons. The biggest issue was that the Metro did not publish odds in the morning for all races, meaning we couldn’t use the Metro, and therefore the rules of the sweepstake were amended to use the official pre-race odds to calculate the payout instead. This meant there was only one set of odds used, and our edge disappeared!
​
Even if we had used this method, there was a more fundamental issue - the margins we ended up with were tiny anyway. The Metro vs pre-race odds did not swing wildly, meaning that even selecting the horse with the highest EV were only marginally better than picking at random.

So, was there an alternative?

Attempt 2 - 2nd and 3rd place odds
​
My next attempt at an exploitative strategy was based on the insight that the payout multiplier for 2nd and 3rd place was based on the odds of the horse coming 1st, rather than the odds of the horse coming 2nd or 3rd.

The expected value of a horse was not quite as I calculated above, it was actually:
$$EV = P(1)*p_1 + P(2)*p_2 + P(3)*p_3$$
Above, we were using the implied probability of the horse coming first as a proxy for the probability it would come second and third. This is not the same, and some betting websites do allow you to bet on whether a horse will come 2nd or 3rd.

For websites that do not allow you to bet directly on this, then we may still be able to calculate it from the odds for whether a horse finishes in the top 2 or 3 places. We just need to subtract out the implied probability of coming 1st from the probability of coming in the top 2, and then subtracting this out from coming top 3 etc.

​I therefore added some more columns to my table above, corresponding to the probability of the horses coming 2nd and 3rd, and then used this to calculate the EV instead.

We see that the final column, Total EV, now has quite different values for each horse. In this case Horse 15, Seddon has an EV of 11.72. The favourite horse on the other hand - number 7  - only has an EV of 6.2. The intuitive explanation of this is that the probability of Seddon coming first is very low – this is the reflected in the long odds of 67, this then gives us a large multiplier, but the odds of the horse coming second or third are actually relatively less far out – the fact that it is not the favourite actually increases the odds of it coming in a position which is not 1st. But then if does come in 2nd or 3rd, we would still apply the same large multiplier for the odds of it coming 1st. This then gives us our 2nd edge – we can gain a positive EV by focusing.

As a thought experiment, imagine we have a race with three horses – horse A is a clear favourite, horse B is an average horse, and horse C is clearly the weakest. By betting on horse C – the odds of it winning should be very low, so the multiple should be very high, but then this multiple will be applied even if it comes 2nd or 3rd, which is exactly where it is expected to finish.

This therefore suggests our next potential strategy – select horses which maximise our EV using the implied probabilities of the horses coming 2nd, 3rd etc.

So is this what I did? Well kind of....

The issue with this approach is that typically the horses that provide the best EV also have very long odds. In the race analysed above, our horse has an EV of 11.7, but it only has a 7% chance overall of coming in the top 3. In race two for example, the horse with the best EV actually only had a 2.7% chance of coming in the top 3. Since there are only 28 races in total, if each horse we selected only had a 2.7% chance of coming in, then the probability of us getting 0 points overall in the entire competition would then be:
​
$(1-2.7 \%)^{28} = 48 \%$​

So there is roughly a 50% chance we will get 0 points!

Alternatively, if we selected the favourite every time, we could expect it to come top 3 almost every time, and thereby guarantee ourselves points most races, but it also has the lowest EV.

So we have what appears to be a risk vs reward trade off. Pick outsiders and give ourselves the highest EV overall, or pick the favourites thereby reducing our overall EV but also reducing our volatility.

This leads us  neatly to attempt 3 - trying to think about how to maximise our probability of winning the competition rather than simply maximising EV for each race.
​
Attempt 3 - EP curves
​
From the work above, we now have our model of the position each horse will finish in each race – using the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd implied probabilities - and we have the payout for each horse – using the odds of the horse coming 1st. We can then bring our selection of horse and these probabilities together in a summary tab and simulate our daily score stochastically using a Monte Carlo method. To do this we just need to turn the implied probabilities into a CDF, and lookup the value of each position and repeat 10,000 times. The output for this then ends up looking like the following, where the value is the number of points we will for a given race.

So we see that across this sample of 20 simulations, most days we to end up with 0 points overall, but a few days have very high scores. So far so good!

The next step is to set up an EP table of the following, which looks like the following:

The EP table gives us the probability of exceeding various scores in the competition based on our horse selections. In this case, we see that there is a 1 in 20 chance of getting 453 points or greater in the day.

This is useful even on its own – when I was deciding which horses to bet on, I simply played around with the selections until I got an EP table I was comfortable with. My reasoning was quite basic – I decided I wanted to maximise the 1 in 20 value. I wanted to give myself something like a 1/4 chance of winning the whole competition and a 3/4 chance of getting very few points. Since there were four days of races, dividing the 1/4 by another 4 suggests we should be looking at maximising the 1 in 20 level (I admit this reasoning was a bit rough, but it seemed to serve its purpose)

The insight here is that the payout structure of the sweepstake is such that coming in the top 3 is all that matters, and in particular coming 1st is disproportionately rewarded. To see this, we can think of the daily selection of horses as attempting to maximise the EV of the overall prize rather than the EV of our overall score - maximising the EV of each race is only a means to this end. So we are actually interested in maximising the following:

$0.7 * P(1st) + 0.2 + P(2nd) + 0.1 * P(3rd)$

Which will largely be dominated by P(1st), given the $0.7$ factor.
​
This is largely the strategy I went for in the end.

Attempt 4 - Game theory?

I’ve brushed over one difficulty above; in order to maximise our prize EV we need to consider not just which strategy we should take, but how this strategy will fare against the strategies that other people will take. If everyone is maximising their 1 in 20 return period then there’s little point us doing exactly the same. Luckily for me, most people were doing little more than picking horses randomly. We could then formalise this assumption, and come up with a numerical solution to the problem above.

To do this, we would simulate our returns for each day across 10,000 simulations as above, but this time we would compare ourselves against a ‘base strategy’ of random selection of horses and we would simulate this base strategy for the approximately 40 people who entered.

Each simulation would then give us a ranking we would finish in the competition, Here is an example of what that would look like:

​And we could then convert this into an EP table which would look like the following:

So we see that if we select these horses, we end up having somewhere between a 1 in 10 and a 1 in 5 chance of winning the competition.

Now that we have all of this set up, we can then optimise our horse selection to target a particular return period.

I didn’t actually end up setting up the above for the sweepstake, but I suspect it would have been an improvement on my approach

Attempt 5 - Multiple day?

There is a further refinement we can make to the above. We have so far only really been focusing on maximising our chance of winning by using a fixed strategy throughout the competition. But there is no reason we have to do this. After the first day, we should really be including the current scores of each competitor as part of our calculation of our ranking. i.e. if person 1 had a great day and now has 200 points but we had a bad day and still have 0 points, by accounting for this, the model should automatically increase our volatility i.e. start picking horses with longer odds so as to increase the chance of us catching up. If on the other hand, we had a really good first day and are now in the lead, the model should then automatically reduce our volatility and start selecting the favourites more often to help safely maintain our lead.
​
How did it work in practice?

I ended up placing 2nd, and taking 20% of the prize pot which was great! I was behind for most of the competition but then pulled back on the last day when a 66/1 came in 1st place, and I picked up 330 points off a single race. This may look miraculous, but is exactly how the model is supposed to work. 

Does that have any applicability to gambling generally? Unfortunately not, basically all of the work above is based on exploiting the specific scoring system of the sweepstake. There's no real way of apply this to gambling generally.

I just finished reading China Mieville's novel Kraken. It was really cool, it did take me a while to get into Mieville's voice, but once I got into the swing of it I really enjoyed it. Here is the blurb in case you are interested:

"In the Darwin Centre at London’s Natural History Museum, Billy Harrow, a cephalopod specialist, is conducting a tour whose climax is meant to be the Centre’s prize specimen of a rare Architeuthis dux--better known as the Giant Squid. But Billy’s tour takes an unexpected turn when the squid suddenly and impossibly vanishes into thin air."

One of the lines in the book struck me as surprisingly familiar. Here is the quote from the book:

"She flicked through a pad by her bed, where she made notes of various summonings. A spaceape, all writhing tentacles, to stimulate her audio nerve directly? Too much attitude."

After thinking about this for a moment, it clicked that this is a reference to a Burial song called Spaceape (from his self titled album). The line goes:

"Living spaceapes, creatures, covered, smothered in writhing tentacles
Stimulating the audio nerve directly"

I couldn't find any reference online to the inclusion of Burial lyrics in Mieville's novels. Okay I thought, that's a cool a easter egg, but it got my thinking, are there any other song lyrics buried in Mieville's books? And if so, is there any way we can scan them automatically?

Collecting Lyrics

The first step was to get a database of song lyrics which we can use to scan the novels for, Unfortunately there is no easy place to find a database of song lyrics, so I was forced to scrape them from a lyrics site.

I used the following free chrome extension web scraper which is very easy to use, and in my experience very reliable:
webscraper.io/

After about 10 minutes of setting it up, and about an hour of leaving it to run. I had managed to scrape most of Burial's lyrics in to csv files.

I also scraped lyrics by Kode9 and Spaceape so I could see if they were referenced anywhere. It's hard to know which artist I should look for, but both of these have been mentioned by Mieville in interviews.

The web scraping add-in has an easy to use GUI. Here is a screenshot of what it looks like to set it up:
​

Analysing the text

This is now the hardest part of the problem. We have electronic copies of China Mieville's novels in .txt format, and we have a collection of lyrics in .txt format which we would like to compare them against, how can we programmatically analyse whether Mieville references other Burial lyrics in one of his books?

If we simply attempt to match entire strings, then we have the issue that we might miss out on some references due to small changes in word ordering or punctuation. For example, in the example above using Burial's Spaceape, the wording is slightly different and the tenses of some of the words have been changed, therefore looking for an exact match between lyrics and text will probably not work. If on the other hand we don't match complete strings, but just try to match words, then we will be overwhelmed by small words like 'the' and 'a' which will be used multiple times in both Burial's song lyrics, and in China Mieville's novels.

There are two main approaches I came up with.to solve this problem. My first thought was to match individual words, generating a huge list of matches, and then to count the number of uses of each word in Mieville's novels, and then sorting by the words that match but which are also the most uncommon. For example I would imagine that Spaceape is only ever used once in all of Mieville's novels, giving us information about how unusual this word is. Combined with the fact that this word is also used in a Burial lyric, gives us enough information to assume that there is a high probability of a match, at this point we could investigate manually. 

I ultimately didn't go down this road. Instead, I had the idea to try to adapt plagiarism detection software to this problem. When you think about it, the two problems are actually quite similar. Plagiarism detection is about trying to automatically check two documents for similar phrases, without relying on complete matches.

Open Source Plagiarism Detection

I found the following free-to-use program created by Lou Bloomfield of the University of Virginia which is perfect for what I was trying to do.
plagiarism.bloomfieldmedia.com/wordpress/

It compares two sets of files and then creates a side by side hyperlinked comparison, which can be viewed in chrome, highlighting the parts of the documents where a possible match has been detected. There are various settings you can tweak to specify how close of a match you are interested in. 

I have included a screenshot below of the section where the Spaceape line is detected. There were about 500 matches detected when I ran this, but it only took about a minute to scroll through and check up on the ones that looked significant.
​

Results

Ultimately, this analysis felt like a bit of a failure. These were the only lyrics I could find in all of his novels and while  there is always the chance that I need to expand the number of artists I'm looking at, or refine my detection methods I imagine this is all there is. I still thought the process was quite cool so I thought I'd write up what I had done anyway.

If you have any thoughts, let me know by leaving a comment.

When you are playing a drinking game, do you ever catch yourself calculating the probabilities of various events happening? If you are like most people the answer to that is probably "..... um..... no....... why would I ever do that...."

Okay, maybe that's not the kind of thing you think about when playing a drinking game. But I bet you think it would be interesting to know what the odds are anyway? No? Really? Still not that interested? .... Okay... well I find it interesting, so I'm going to write about it anyway. 

Eyes up/Eyes down

I've only played this game a couple of times but it's pretty fun, it requires no equipment, and has quite a lot of drinking. All players sit in a circle, one player calls out "Eye's down" at which point everyone looks down, the same player then says "Eye's up" at which point everyone looks up at a random person in the circle. If the person you are looking at is also looking at you, then you both drink. Pretty simple.

What is the probability that you will drink? Let's denote the event that you have matched someone with $M$. Then:

$$P(M) = \frac{1}{n-1} $$
Where $n$ is the number of players.

​Of course people in real life tend not to pick a random person to look at, and even if they attempt to pick a random person, people have been shown to be terrible at picking randomly. But for the purposes of this analysis, unless we make this assumption, the only alternative would be to play the game hundreds of times, record how often matches are made, and then make an empirical claim. As fun as it sounds to play this game hundreds of times in a row, it would be better for your health to just assume a uniform spread of guesses.

The fact that you have a $ \frac{1}{n-1} $ chance of getting a match means that the more people are playing the game, the less likely each person is to drink. Does this apply to the group as a whole though? What is the probability that someone in the group drinks? If we had a hundred people playing, then each individual would hardly ever drink. In fact you would expect them to drink once every $99$ goes. But would you expect it to also be unlikely that anyone at all drinks?  I spent about an hour trying to calculate this and didn't get very far.

Calculating through conditional probabilities doesn't seem to help, and I couldn't come up with a decent approach to count the permutations of all the possible ways of selecting pairings for elements in a set, such that there are no 2-cycles. In the end I gave up and just wrote a program to calculate the answer stochastically. Monte Carlo analysis really is such a versatile tool for problems like these. Anytime you can formulate the problem easily, but struggle to come up with an analytical solution, Monte Carlo analysis will probably work.

Here is the table I generated of the probability of someone in the group drinking for a group of size n:

There is a definite trend here, if we plot the values on the chart it looks pretty clear that out solution converges to $0.6$. No idea why though! I might come back to this problem another time, but if anyone has any thoughts then please let me know.
​

Odds

So this is not technically a drinking game, but is played quite often by people who are out drinking. The rules for this game are pretty simple, anytime you would like to dare someone to do something you say "odds of you doing this". The dare might be anything, from 'eating a spoon full of chilli powder, downing your drink, or even getting a tattoo (that last one is a real one I heard about from a friend who playing the game while travelling in Eastern Europe). The person you have challenged then gives you a number. They might say $20$, then each of you count down from $3$ and say an integer from $1$ to $20$ (or whatever number they selected). If you both said the same number, then they have to do the dare. Therefore the higher number you pick, the less likely it is that you will have to do the dare. 

What are the odds of you having to do whatever it is you are betting on, based on you selecting the number $n$? This is quite a straightforward problem, the answer is just $\frac{1} {n} $. I was playing this game last week with someone who thought the answer might be $\frac{1} {n^2} $. This would give a very different likelihood of having to do the dare. For example if you selected $20$, then you would have a $5 \%$ chance of having to do the dare, but according to my friend's calculation he thought you would have $0.25 \%$ chance of doing the dare.

Here is a table showing the correct probabilities for various values of $n$.

Dirty Pint Flip

I wouldn't recommend playing this game to be honest. I played it in uni once, but it's a bit grim. All the players sit in a circle with a central pint glass in the middle, the players take it in turn to pour any amount of their own drink into the central pint glass as they would like, they then have to flip a coin and guess whether it will be heads or tails. If they get it right, then the game moves on to the person to their left, if they get it wrong, then they have to down the dirty pint. When I played it some people were drinking wine, some people were drinking beer... it was not a good combination.

What is the probability that you will have to drink? This is quite straight forward, it is simply the probability that you will guess the coin flip correctly. Which is just $\frac{1}{2} $.

What about the question of how much you will drink on average? That is, on average if you have to drink, how many people will have poured their drink into the glass before you drink? We can model this as a geometric distribution and calculate the probabilities of each possible number of people. Let's denote the number of people who have poured in before you, given you are about to drink as $N$, then:

The expected value of the number of drinks is then the sumproduct of these two columns . This gives us a value of $2$. Therefore, if you have to drink, the average number of drinks that will have been poured into the pint is $2$.

Two Dice Nominate

This is another game I've only played a couple of times. And I'm not sure if it has a better name than the one I've given it, if you know of one then let me know. In this game, you sit in a circle with a range of drinks on the table, you take it in turns to nominate a person, a drink, and a number between $2$ and $12$. You then roll two dice and add them together. If you have rolled the correct number, the person you nominated drinks the drink you selected, if however you roll a double, then you drink that drink. If it is both a double and you get it correct, then you both have to drink.

The reason that this game does not have much depth to it is that you can always just pick the most likely number to come up when rolling two dice. Here is a table showing the probability of each value coming up:

Therefore you might as well pick $7$ every single time! Is there anything else we can say about this game? We know that if we roll  a double, then we have to drink the drink. What is the probability of you rolling a double in this game? The probability of this is always just $\frac{1}{6} $. Interesting this is the same probability as rolling the dice such that the sum is $7$. Therefore, if you do pick $7$, there is an equal chance of you and the person you are nominating drinking the drink.
​

Recently I've been reading The Mathematics of Poker (2009, Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman) and I came across an interesting idea that I thought I'd write about. For me, understanding how to analyse this situation really gets to the heart of how I think about poker. I'd love to spend more time playing and studying poker but it's such a time-sink and I don't really have the oodles of free time it would require, but every now and again I'll still open up a poker book and read about something, this is one of those interesting topics I was reading about hopefully you find it as interesting as I do.

Calling a shove pre-flop in heads up

The scenario being analysed in the book is a relatively common situation, particularly in online poker where people are more inclined to shove than in real life games. The question is:

How should we analyse whether to call when we have a moderately strong hand against an opponent who has gone all-in pre flop.

Let's set up an example so that we have something concrete to talk about. Say we have pocket Kings pre flop, and our opponent goes all-in, how should we decide whether to call? Obviously without knowing our opponent's hand there is no 100% correct answer. There is  however one very useful way of analysing the situation.

Equity against a range

We need to ask ourselves - what cards would are opponent go all-in with, and how does my current hand fare against that range? i.e. we need to calculate our equity against our opponent's range. We are adding another layer of stochastic uncertainty on the event, instead of trying to guess what hand our opponent has (which is almost impossible) we are trying to guess what kind of hands he might go all-in with (which is very much possible). We then take this extra level of uncertainty and calculate the correct mathematical way to proceed.

On the one extreme, let's suppose that based on our read of how our opponent is playing, we might think that they would only go all-in with very strong hands, in this case just pocket Aces. We would then be a 4:1 underdog if we call with Ks, and we should definitely fold. (In order to calculate this we could use any standard poker calculator like the following)

www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

One the other hand, suppose we know for a fact that our opponent has not looked at their cards at all but has still decided to go all in. In this case we should definitely call. The only cards we will be behind are pocket Aces, which make up a small fraction of the possible hands that our opponent could shove with, and we will be ahead or equal against all other possible hands. Therefore we would have a positive EV when calling.

What if our read on our opponent's range is somewhere in between though?

What we need to do is calculate our equity against each individual hand in our opponent's range, and then calculate the probability of our opponent having a given hand from that range. That is to say, in order to calculate the conditional expectation, we need to calculate the unconditional expectations against each hand and then multiply by the conditional probability of our opponent having that hand, given our belief about our opponent's range. 

Numerical Example

Let's go back to our numerical example, and suppose that we have pocket Kings, and we put our opponent on either Pocket Aces, Kings, Queens, or Jacks. All of these hands are equally likely, so there is a 25% chance of our opponent having each hand. We can look up our equity against each hand (after you've been playing for a while, you naturally start to memorise hand equities anyway)

Our probability of winning is then:

$$P(A) * P(beating A) + P(K)*P(beating K) + P(Q)*P(beating Q) + P(J) * P(beating J)$$
Putting in our values:

$$ 0.25*0.2 + 0.25*0.5 + 0.25*0.8 + 0.25*0.8 = 0.575.$$

​We therefore see we have a positive expectation against this range, and should call.

No one actually thinks like this in real games?

It is a general misconception that professional poker is a game where players are trying to guess exactly what hand their opponent has, are constantly trying to bluff each other, or trying to pick up on subtle tells or signs that their opponent is or isn't bluffing.

The more mundane truth is that poker is ultimately a game of imperfect information, where the better player is the one who can correctly interpret the betting information their opponent is giving them, and can then quickly and accurately make the kind of judgements described above during a game.

Obviously poker players are not carrying out these calculations in their head to multiple decimal places in real time, what they will do though is review their hands after a game, calculate exactly what they should have done, and try to build up an intuition as to what the correct answer is, so that in the middle of a game they can quickly make decisions.

Software to Analyse this situation

Is there an easy software based method way of calculating our equity against a range? After I did a quick google there are a few programs that offer this type of analysis. For example:

combonator.com/
www.power-equilab.com/

More interestingly though, I also found the following open source software, that can be adapted to carry out this type of analysis:

github.com/zekyll/OMPEval

At some point, I might try to use this code to set up a page on this website to let people analyse this situation.

Over the Christmas break, I finally got around to playing some Computer Games, which I unfortunately haven't done in ages. One really fun game (if you're like me and love difficult puzzles) is a game called Myst.

It was originally released in 1993 as a point and click puzzle adventure game, but it has subsequently been remade, using the Unity engine, as a full 3d interactive game. I really liked the fact that there is no time limit, no danger of dying, just a cool story, interesting puzzles and relaxing music.

One puzzle that I thought was cool involved aligning gear wheels. If you haven't played the game and don't want spoilers, then stop reading now.

The Gear Puzzle

​We are given the contraption in the image below, and are told that we need to end up with the numbers 2,2,1 (reading from top to bottom). We have three levers we can pull, the left lever moves the top two gears left once, the right lever moves the bottom two gears right once. The lever on the back wall resets the machine. The starting values of the gears are 3,3,3. So how many times do we need to pull each lever in order to end up at 2,2,1?

After playing around with it for a while I began to think that it might not even be possible to get to 2,2,1 using the two levers. Then I thought if that's true, can I prove it as well?

Proof that the puzzle is impossible

Instead of thinking of the value as $3$, let's call it $0$ instead. We can then think of the starting state as a vector:

To see that we are not able to do this with just the basic operations from the starting point we are given, note that the the sum of the first and third elements of our starting vector is equal to the second vector mod $3$, that is, $0 + 0 \equiv 0$ $(mod$ $3)$. For the vector we trying to create, the first and third is not congruent to the second element mod $3$. Instead we have $ 2 + 1 \equiv 0$ $(mod$ $3) $ rather than $2$.

The two operations we are applying to our starting vector preserve this congruence property, as it applies to both the vectors we are adding on as well. Therefore, we can conclude that this property is an invariant of the system, and because our goal does not satisfy this condition, we will never be able to reach:

by just using simple pulls of the lever. We need to realise this in order to force us to look for an alternative way to solve the puzzle. Otherwise we would probably just keep yanking on the levers in the hope that we will eventually get there. Once we realise this and start looking around, we are able to find another way to manipulate the machine, allowing us to make the numbers we need.

Designing a new number system

I got interested in alternative number systems when I read Malcolm Gladwell's book Outliers back in uni. You might be surprised that Gladwell would write about this topic, but he actually uses it to attempt to explain why Asian students tend to do so well at maths in the US. I was flicking through an old notebook the other day and I can across my attempt at designing such a system. I thought it might be interesting to write up my system. 

To set the scene, here is the relevant extract from the book:

"Take a look at the following list of numbers: 4,8,5,3,9,7,6. Read them out loud to yourself. Now look away, and spend twenty seconds memorizing that sequence before saying them out loud again.If you speak English, you have about a 50 percent chance of remembering that sequence perfectly If you’re Chinese, though, you’re almost certain to get it right every time. Why is that? Because as human beings we store digits in a memory loop that runs for about two seconds. We most easily memorize whatever we can say or read within that two second span. And Chinese speakers get that list of numbers—4,8,5,3,9,7,6—right every time because—unlike English speakers—their language allows them to fit all those seven numbers into two seconds.

That example comes from Stanislas Dehaene’s book “The Number Sense,” and as Dehaene explains:
Chinese number words are remarkably brief. Most of them can be uttered in less than one-quarter of a second (for instance, 4 is ‘si’ and 7 ‘qi’) Their English equivalents—”four,” “seven”—are longer: pronouncing them takes about one-third of a second. The memory gap between English and Chinese apparently is entirely due to this difference in length. In languages as diverse as Welsh, Arabic, Chinese, English and Hebrew, there is a reproducible correlation between the time required to pronounce numbers in a given language and the memory span of its speakers. In this domain, the prize for efficacy goes to the Cantonese dialect of Chinese, whose brevity grants residents of Hong Kong a rocketing memory span of about 10 digits.

It turns out that there is also a big difference in how number-naming systems in Western and Asian languages are constructed. In English, we say fourteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen and nineteen, so one would think that we would also say one-teen, two-teen, and three-teen. But we don’t. We make up a different form: eleven, twelve, thirteen, and fifteen. Similarly, we have forty, and sixty, which sound like what they are. But we also say fifty and thirty and twenty, which sort of sound what they are but not really. And, for that matter, for numbers above twenty, we put the “decade” first and the unit number second: twenty-one, twenty-two. For the teens, though, we do it the other way around. We put the decade second and the unit number first: fourteen, seventeen, eighteen. The number system in English is highly irregular. Not so in China, Japan and Korea. They have a logical counting system. Eleven is ten one. Twelve is ten two. Twenty-four is two ten four, and so on.
That difference means that Asian children learn to count much faster. Four year old Chinese children can count, on average, up to forty. American children, at that age, can only count to fifteen, and don’t reach forty until they’re five: by the age of five, in other words, American children are already a year behind their Asian counterparts in the most fundamental of math skills.

The regularity of their number systems also means that Asian children can perform basic functions—like addition—far more easily. Ask an English seven-year-old to add thirty-seven plus twenty two, in her head, and she has to convert the words to numbers (37 + 22). Only then can she do the math: 2 plus 7 is nine and 30 and 20 is 50, which makes 59. Ask an Asian child to add three-tens-seven and two tens-two, and then the necessary equation is right there, embedded in the sentence. No number translation is necessary: It’s five-tens nine.

“The Asian system is transparent,” says Karen Fuson, a Northwestern University psychologist, who has done much of the research on Asian-Western differences. “I think that it makes the whole attitude toward math different. Instead of being a rote learning thing, there’s a pattern I can figure out. There is an expectation that I can do this. There is an expectation that it’s sensible. For fractions, we say three fifths. The Chinese is literally, ‘out of five parts, take three.’ That’s telling you conceptually what a fraction is. It’s differentiating the denominator and the numerator.”

The much-storied disenchantment with mathematics among western children starts in the third and fourth grade, and Fuson argues that perhaps a part of that disenchantment is due to the fact that math doesn’t seem to make sense; its linguistic structure is clumsy; its basic rules seem arbitrary and complicated.

Asian children, by contrast, don’t face nearly that same sense of bafflement. They can hold more numbers in their head, and do calculations faster, and the way fractions are expressed in their language corresponds exactly to the way a fraction actually is—and maybe that makes them a little more likely to enjoy math, and maybe because they enjoy math a little more they try a little harder and take more math classes and are more willing to do their homework, and on and on, in a kind of virtuous circle.

When it comes to math, in other words, Asians have built-in advantage. . ."

Here's a link to Gladwell's website which contains the extract.
gladwell.com/outliers/rice-paddies-and-math-tests/

Base-10 System

Gladwell mainly talks about the words that the Chinese use for numbers and the structure inherent in them, but there is actually another more interesting way we can embed structure in our number system.

Our current number system is base-10, which means that we have different symbols for all the numbers up to 10 (0,1,2,3,4,...,9), and then when we get to the number 10, we use the first number again but we move it over one place, and then put a zero in it's place. When we are teaching a child how to write numbers, this is exactly how we explain it to them. For example to write two hundred and seven, we would tell them that they need to put a 2 in the hundreds columns a 0 in the tens column and a 7 in the units column - 207.

The fact that we use a base-10 number system is actually just a historical quirk. The only reason humans started to use it is just that we have 10 fingers, there's no particular mathematical benefit to a base-10 system. We could actually base our number system on any integer. The most commonly used alternative is the binary number system used extensively in computing. The binary number system is a base-2 number system where we only have 2 symbols - 0 and 1. The trick is that instead of reusing the first symbol when we get to ten, we do it when we get to two. So the sequence of numbers up to 10 in binary is:

In fact we don't even need to restrict ourselves to integers as the base of our number system. For example, we could even use base $ \pi $! Under this system if we want to write $ \pi $, then we would just write 1, to write $ \pi^2 $ it would just be 10. Writing one in base $ \pi $ would be quite difficult though, and we would need to either write $ 1 / {\pi} $ or invent a new character.



Base 12 number system

So what would be the ideal number on which to base our number system?

I'm going to make the argument that a base 12 number system would be the best option. 12 has a large number of small factors and this makes it ideal as a base.

• 12 has almost twice as many prime factors as 10. When working in base 10, it is relatively easy to multiply a number by either 2, 5, or 10, this is because these are all factors of 10. When we are working in base 12, it will be easy to multiply by 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12. Division by these numbers is also much easier. 
• It is the smallest number divisible by 1,2,3, and 4.
• We seem to intuitively favour the number 12 in many common circumstances. It has it's own name - a dozen, we also used it to split inches into feet. It's actually the largest integer that has still has it's own name. Once we get to 13, it's just a combination of three and teen, and so on for larger numbers, but eleven and twelve have their own names.
• We have 12 knuckles on the four fingers of each hand (ignoring thumbs) making counting on our hands easy still.

Returning back to Gladwell's idea, another change we could make to the number system to help make it more structured is to change the actual symbols we use for the integers. Here was my attempt from 2011 for alternative symbols we could use.

My approach was to embed as much structure into the numbers as possible, so the symbol for three is actually just a combination of the symbols for one and two. This applies for all the numbers other than one, two, four, and eight.

I wonder if it would be possible to come up with some sort of rule about how the symbols rotate to further reduce the total number of symbols and also to add some additional structure to the symbols.

Let me know if you can think of any additional improvements that could be made to our number system.
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